Latest Blog Entries
My blog is temporarily on hold. I am back in school studying machine learning and data science programming.
I will resume blog updates in late 2017.
The first batch of economic data in 2017 indicates that China has started the year on stable footing. Investment modestly improved but remains in a decade’s low range. Factory output is stable. Consumption numbers were weaker on lower auto sales as government-backed incentives ended. My models hint at early 2017 growth around 6.7 - 6.8%. The obsolete “Li Keqiang” index - often cited as proof that the government was hiding a hard-landing a year and a half ago - is running around 10.5%, enough to keep many hard-landing doomsayers at bay for the time being. China’s current economic state appears sound by most measures released so far this year.
Economic stability has taken hold in spite of headwinds, but how much longer can those headwinds be contained?
A huge leadership shuffle is on its way in 2017. Expect China's leadership to make all efforts to maintain stability - economic and social - in the coming year. The use of all of Beijing's reflation tools are a potential detriment to long-term economic health, but can certainly be applied to keep the wheels on the rail in 2017.
China's Big Three Economic Indicators
(Select an area in a chart to zoom in. Double-click to zoom back out)